Explaining criminalsPDF电子书下载

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THEMES 3

Chapter 1 INTERPRETING CAREERS 3

The Subject 3

The Intent 3

Satisfying Curiosity 3

Expanding Experience 4

Guiding Action 4

Truth and Utility 5

Themes 6

Many Roads 6

Chapter 2 QUESTIONS, ANSWERS, AND THEIR USES 10

Silly Questions 10

Levels of Analysis 12

Asking "Why?" as a Means of"Understanding" Oneself and Others 14

Reasons, Intentions, Motives, and Other Causes 15

Kinds of Causes 16

Behavior, Action, Conduct 17

In Summary 19

Morals Move Causes 20

Table 2.1 Evaluating Acts and Actors and Locating Causes 22

Utility and Futility of"Why?" 21

Deficiencies of Empathetic Understanding as Knowledge 22

A Personal Conclusion 24

Asking for Knowledge 26

Mistaking Talk for Action 27

Chapter 3 CONTINUITIES AND CONTINGENCIES 29

Prophecy, Forecast, Prediction 29

A Comment on Faith and Knowledge 31

1. The Barnum Effect 32

2. No Scores 32

3. One-Sided Tallies 32

4. Comfort 33

5. Excused Failure 33

Counting Continuities and Their Contingencies 34

What Science Requires 34

Betting on the Future: Counting Versus Guessing 36

Refining the Rate 37

Relative Powers 38

An Inference 39

Difficulties in Thinking 39

The Null Hypothesis 41

In Summary 41

Stability of Personality 42

Kinds of Continuity 42

Contingencies 49

The Nature of a Scientific Statement 50

Qualifications 51

1. Difficult Tallies 51

2. Cues and Their Relative Powers 51

Figure 3.1 The "Twisted Pear" Illustrates the Greater Predic-tive Value of "Bad" Signs 53

3. Valid Cues May Not be Accurate Cues 56

Table 3.1 Reported Validity of a "Violence" Index 57

Table 3.2 Predictive Utility and Test Validity of Three Homicide Indices (Hypothetical) 57

Figure 3.2 Difference Between Predictive Utility and Test Validity Diagrammed 58

4. Controlling Conduct Without Changing Personality 59

Summary 60

Chapter 4 TALLIES 63

Two Common Errors 63

Objectivity 64

Measurement 64

Counting and Defining 65

1. How shall we count "poverty"? 66

2. How shall we count "income"? 66

3. How shall we count "robbery"? 67

4. How shall we count "culpable homicide"? 68

Prescription 69

Social Filters Foul Tallies 70

Advice 72

Manipulating the Numbers 73

Ratios, Proportions, Rates 73

Trends Versus Levels 74

Quantity and Quality 75

Counting Rules: Incidents, Victims, Suspects, and Convicts 75

Potential Offenders as Bases 77

Actual Offenders as Bases 77

Potential Victims as Bases 79

Opportunities as Bases 80

Quantity Graded by Quality 80

The S-W Index 81

1. Additivity 82

2. Social Context 82

3. Informative Value 84

Summary 84

CAUSES 89

Chapter 5 CONSTITUTIONSPersonalities 89

Structure and stability 90

1. Cognitive Style 91

An Aside: On Accidents, Crimes, and Other Injuries 93

2. Intelligence 95

Table 5.1 Cattell's Factor B: Intelligence 98

3. Dimensions of Temperament 98

Eysenck's Dimensions 99

(i) Introversion-extroversion 100

Figure 5.1 Two Major Dimensions of Personality Compared with the Four Greek Categories 101

(ii) Neuroticism 102

(iii) Psychoticism 102

Cattell's Dimensions 103

Table 5.2 Cattell's Factor C: Ego Strength 104

Table 5.3 Cattell's Factor D: Phlegmatic Temperament-Excitability 104

Table 5.4 Cattell's Factor E: Submissiveness-Dominance 105

Table 5.5 Cattell's Factor G: Superego Strength 105

Table 5.6 Cattell's Factor K: Social Concern 106

4. Motivation 106

A. Methodology: Sayingis not Wanting 107

B. Substance: Individual Differences 108

C. Prescription: Acknowledge Constitutional Differences 108

Is There a Criminal Personality? 110

Criticism 111

Chapter 6 LESSONSLearning: How it Occurs 112

1. Classical, or Respondent, Conditioning 115

2. Operant, or Instrumental, Conditioning 116

Cautions 118

Summary 119

Some Reinforcement Contingencies 119

Implications 120

3. Modeling 121

The Moving Balance 122

Figure 6.1 Learning Processes and Learned Results 122

Consequences 123

Learning: Content of the Lessons 124

Lessons As Environments 128

Chapter 7 ENVIRONMENTS 131

Political Preference and Causal Location 131

A Running Debate and an Opinion 131

Markers of Evironments 132

A List of Environmental Features 132

Examples 135

Interpreting Interactions 138

Correlating Character, Circumstance, and Career 139

Laying the Blame 139

Conclusons 141

Chapter8 SELECTING CAUSES 143

Causes of Causal Thinking 143

Difficulties 144

Causal Criteria 145

1. Correlation 146

2. Variation 146

3. Sequence 146

4. Non-spurious correlation 146

5. Necessity 146

6. Sufficiency 146

7. Asymmetry 146

Difficulties 147

Summary 149

Causal Content 149

1. Material 150

2. Formal 150

3. Efficient 150

4. Final 150

Advice 151

Causal Styles 152

Thresholds 152

1. Independently overdetermined 153

2. Simultaneously overdetermined 153

3. Overdetermined in linked fashion 153

Summary 154

References 157

Name Index 201

Subject Index 211

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