DATA FOR DECISIONS INFORMATION STRATEGIES FOR POLICYMAKERSPDF电子书下载

查看更多关于的内容

Chapter 1: Overview 1

Cause and Effect: How Does It Work? 4

Measuring the Status Quo: What Is the State of the World? 8

Prediction: What Will Happen? 11

Reasons for Commissioning Special Studies 13

Conclusion 16

References 16

PART I: CAUSE AND EFFECT 17

Chapter 2: Experiments 18

Historical Examples 18

Features of the Comparative Experiment 20

What the Comparative Experiment Is Not 23

Strengthening Controlled Experiments 24

Merits of the Experimental Method 26

Social, Economic, and Medical Experimentation 28

Weaknesses of Experiments 35

Quality Checklist 37

Policy Implications 43

Conclusion 44

References 45

Further Reading 46

Chapter 3: Special Considerations for Economic Experiments 47

The Economist’s View of Experiments 47

Micro-Experiments 47

Macro-Experiments 48

Production Experiments 49

Reorganization Experiments 50

Problems of Execution and Inference 50

Conclusion 54

References 54

Chapter 4: Comparative Observational Studies 55

Example: Preschool Program Evaluation 55

Features of Observational Studies 58

What the Observational Study Is Not 66

Strengthening Observational Studies 66

Merits of Observational Studies 69

Weaknesses of Observational Studies 69

Quality Checklist 71

Policy Implications 72

Conclusion 73

References 74

Further Reading 74

PART II: MEASURING THE STATUS QUO 77

Chapter 5: Sample Surveys 78

Examples 78

Features of the Sample Survey 85

What the Sample Survey Is Not 90

Strengthening Sample Surveys 91

Merits of Sample Surveys 99

Weaknesses of Sample Surveys 100

Quality Checklist 101

Policy Implications 104

Conclusion 105

References 106

Further Reading 106

Chapter 6: Longitudinal and Panel Studies 107

Examples 108

Merits of Longitudinal Studies 110

Weaknesses of Longitudinal Studies 111

Understanding Rare Events 113

Refreshing and Adjusting Panels 113

Pitfalls 114

Policy Implications and Conclusion 114

References 116

Chapter 7: Case Studies 117

Examples 119

Features of the Case Study 126

What the Case Study Is Not 128

Strengthening Case Studies 129

Merits and Weaknesses of Case Studies 129

Quality Checklist 137

Policy Implications 144

Conclusion 144

References 145

Further Reading 146

Chapter 8: Management Records 147

Examples 147

Features of a Management Records Study 154

Management Information Systems 154

Strengthening Management Records Studies 155

Merits of Management Records Studies 158

Weaknesses of Management Records Studies 159

Quality Checklist 161

Policy Implications 163

Conclusion 164

References 164

Further Reading 165

Chapter 9: Official Statistics 166

Guides to Data 167

Federal Statistical Agencies 170

Additional Sources 175

Interpretation 175

The Information Industry 177

Reference 178

Further Reading 178

Chapter 10: The Explosion in Computer-Assisted Library Searches 179

How a Search Works 180

Types of Data Bases 182

Data Bases at One University 183

Conclusion 188

PART III: PREDICTING THE FUTURE 191

Chapter 11: Simulation 192

Examples 192

Features of Simulation 201

What Simulation Is Not 204

Strengthening Simulation 204

Merits of Simulation 206

Weaknesses of Simulation 207

Quality Checklist 208

Policy Implications 210

Conclusion 212

References 212

Further Reading 212

Chapter 12: Forecasting 214

Examples 214

Features of Forecasts 220

What Forecasting Is Not 221

Strengthening Forecasts 222

Merits of Forecasts 226

Weaknesses of Forecasts 229

Quality Checklist 231

Policy Implications 232

Conclusion 234

References 235

Further Reading 235

Chapter 13: Mathematical Modeling 236

Model of a Panel of Experts 238

Model of the Learning Process 242

Modeling Land Availability and Fertility in Brazil 246

References 250

Further Reading 251

Chapter 14: Introspection and Advice 252

Examples 252

Features on Introspection and Advice 255

What Introspection and Advice Are Not 258

Strengthening Introspection and Advice 259

Merits of Introspection and Advice 266

Weaknesses of Introspection and Advice 267

Quality Checklist 268

Policy Implications 269

Conclusion 271

References 271

Further Reading 272

PART IV: SPECIAL ISSUES 273

Chapter 15: Have Things Gone Away? 274

Checking for Magnitude 275

Smoothness 277

Modeling 278

Warning Signals 279

Protection Against Hoaxes and Frauds 281

References 281

Further Reading 282

Chapter 16: Privacy and Confidentiality 283

Reference 285

Further Reading 286

Chapter 17: Summary of General Questions and Issues 287

Reference 292

Chapter 18: Strengthening the System 293

The Role of the Public 293

Commissioning Policy Research 295

Supplying Information for Policy 296

Using Policy Research 296

What the Future Should Hold 298

References 299

Further Reading 299

Index 301

查看更多关于的内容